Levitate Capital releases white paper and summarises future of eVTOL aircraft and drone economy markets
Venture capital firm Levitate Capital has released a white paper focusing on the future of the drone economy and advanced aerial mobility, and predicts full-scale eVTOL aircraft operations won’t start until at least 2028.
Released on Monday, the document is a comprehensive analysis of the economic potential, market opportunities and strategic considerations in the drone economy. In particular, the white paper focuses on Defense, Enterprise, Consumer, Public Safety, Logistics and Passenger Transportation.
It predicts the global passenger eVTOL aircraft market to be worth $2 billion by 2030, with 27 million passengers — significantly less than what Nexa Capital Advisors, which predicts $244 million in revenue from passenger flights between 2030 and 2040.

In terms of passenger flights, the white paper’s analysis estimates that initial trip distances will start with intercity commutes of less than 30 miles by 2028, and increase to up to 100 miles by 2035 as battery technology and propulsion systems improve.
Its analysis also assumes that all eVTOL aircraft operations before 2030 will be piloted, and pilots won’t be eliminated from that process until after 2035.
Talking more about this as part of a Vertical Flight Society discussion earlier this week, Bastiaan Janmaat, Managing Director at Linse Capital and Levitate Capital, said: “The purpose of this white paper was really a roadmap for ourselves as we looked around the industry. There are several very good industry reports out there covering the drone and air mobility space.
“Some of them are a little bit outdated at this point, so we felt we needed to get a refreshed look at the overall space; what are the different segments, which ones are kicking off today, which ones are taking off a little later and which companies can we invest in today, to capitalise on a trend that is a bit more longer term. These are some of the questions we’ve tried to answer with this report.”
Giving an overview of the report, Dario Constantine, Senior Associate at Levitate Capital and the primary author, he said the drone economy is roughly worth $15 billion today — even after counting for the effects of Covid-19. While Defense currently accounts for 60 per cent of the market, Constantine said that Consumer and Enterprise sectors are amongst the fastest growing in the space.
“By the end of the decade, after experiencing years of technology and regulatory progress, as well as performance improvements and shifting consumer behaviour to online purchased goods…logistics drones will likely become the largest sector,” he said.
“It’s worth noting that passenger drones are a small segment because we think that the industry has some way to go to overcome technology barriers, as well as regulatory hurdles — especially as it’s going to be carrying humans and requires a lot more caution than delivery drones. But it’s perfectly conceivable that by the end of 2040 it [passenger drones] will become one of the largest markets in the drone economy.”
Levitate Capital has already invested in a few companies in the drone and eVTOL aircraft space, including Elroy Air, Volocopter, Skyports and Skydio.
Constantine said he believes the passenger drone market will take the longest to reach commercial viability and despite some companies — including Volocopter — expected to start operations by 2023, he added it will take longer to achieve truly scaled and sustainable operations.
“There are hundreds of eVTOL designs out there, but only a few will overcome the large capital requirements and regulatory hurdles to make it to market. The FAA indicated earlier this year that roughly six eVTOL aircraft were far along in the type certification process, however that’s just one albeit important step in the commercialisation process.
“Realistically, we think the first deployment of eVTOL aircraft will operate in a tourist-like capacity, so from Point A to A. Eventually as the technology improves, and the vehicle becomes more capable, we expect to see the market grow towards a viable air taxi market that will reach $2 billion by 2030.
Constantine added that he expects the air taxi market to then scale quite rapidly beyond 2030, going to roughly $50 billion to $60 billion by 2040 — approximately the same amount that major US airliner Delta reported in revenues in 2019.

He said: “In summary, there are a lot of companies which are pursuing this idea. We think it’s going to take some time to do it, but we do believe the companies which are well-funded and closest to their regulatory approval process, will be the ones to make it to market first and have the strongest chance of success.”
You can watch Levitate Capital’s discussion about its white paper, as part of Vertical Flight Society’s eVTOL Writer’s Group, by clicking here. For more information about Levitate Capital’s work, visit https://levitatecap.com/