Next Gen Aviation Requires Next Gen Weather; TruWeather Solutions aims to reduce weather uncertainty and boost AAM community
This article was written and kindly submitted to eVTOL Insights by Dawn Zoldi
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eVTOL aircraft are at the forefront of the Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) revolution. These innovative aircraft face unique challenges, particularly when operating at low altitudes with uncertain weather data.
Today, uncertainty in weather data due to a lack of weather measurements causes errors in even the best estimates of observed or forecast variables (such as humidity, precipitation, barometric pressure). Weather data voids lead to the cancellation of about thirty percent of general aviation and helicopter flights in circumstances when they could have flown.
Cancelled flights, in turn, lead not only to decreased revenue and profits but also disappointed customers. These trends cannot sustain an economically viable AAM community. TruWeather Solutions aims to bolster the AAM community by reducing weather uncertainty, generating an objective estimate of it and incorporating all of this into a simplified decision process.
The Uncertainty of Weather
Often, when people talk about weather, they refer to it as something certain (e.g., it’s either raining or it’s not). In reality, weather forecasts and observations always come with a level of uncertainty. This is because weather is incredibly complex and constantly changing, and the tools for measuring and predicting it remains imperfect.
For example, let’s say a weather forecast predicts a 60% chance of rain. That doesn’t mean it will definitely rain, nor does it mean it definitely won’t. It just means that, based on the data and models the forecasters have, they believe there’s a 60% chance it could rain. There’s still a 40% chance it might not.
That’s uncertainty. And estimating uncertainty can be complex. That complexity becomes compounded for weather in certain areas, especially those with a dearth of data. For example, weather information for planning and executing low-level flight operations for AAM and small uncrewed aircraft systems (sUAS) carries significant uncertainty.
The uncertainty involved in this specific operational weather information can be attributed to the lack of low-altitude microclimate data which can skew even the best estimates of an observed or forecast variable. This happens today because weather observations remain often too widely distributed or entirely unavailable , especially detailed winds below 5,000ft. Current ground-based weather stations in the United States provide coverage to just three per cent of the nation.
They are located primarily at airports. Weather satellites fail to provide sufficient quality and quantity of weather data in relation to the Earth’s boundary layer (surface to about 5,000 ft AGL). Weather balloons only float up twice a day at 77 locations.
While forecasts can be fairly accurate, that accuracy varies significantly and hinges on instrumentation range and the frequency of measurements taken. Traditional weather models attempt to fill in this “data desert” using using data assimilation and extrapolation techniques. That, however, provides, at best, a statistically informed “guesstimate.” This makes it hard to know when, where, and how much to trust the current weather analysis and forecast.
Due to their unique flight profiles and operations at low altitudes, eVTOL aircraft face their own unique weather challenges. These include dealing with turbulent wind in urban canyons, sudden changes in weather conditions and the need for precise weather data for power optimisation, weight allowances, and recharge times, along with, of course, safe takeoff and landing.
The development of advanced weather forecasting and observation tools, as well as the integration of these tools into flight planning and operations, will be critical for the safe and efficient operation of eVTOL aircraft.
Reducing Uncertainty
Understanding this uncertainty, and reducing it, remains crucial for planning things like flight operations. If a flight company knows there’s a high level of uncertainty in the weather forecast, they might decide to take extra precautions or even reschedule the flight. On the other hand, if the uncertainty is low, they might feel more confident in going ahead with their original plans. In short, addressing uncertainty in weather data helps businesses make better, more informed decisions.
Reducing uncertainty in AAM-relevant weather forecasts can be addressed by increasing the
density and caliber of weather observations. This will not only inform better “nowcasts” of
current weather, it will also improve forecasts of future weather events through overall higher-
quality data inputs. TruWeather Solutions has been building out the U.S. weather observation network, with an emphasis on the low-level atmosphere, over regions where AAM will occur.
The company has been developing next-gen weather products for these next-gen aircraft by intelligently deploying new assets in key locations, taking better advantage of existing assets and utilising data derived from non-traditional sources (such as traffic cameras) to create a “system of systems” for micro-
weather conditions.
TruWeather’s partner sensors range from lower-cost tactical ground-based sensors, radars, cameras, versatile and mobile 3D ultrasonic anemometers, point locational and scanning LiDARS to airborne mobile weather labs such as Meteomatics’ Meteodrone. Each of these systems provides diverse data that covers for the weaknesses of each, all of which TruWeather fuses together to inform a hyper-accurate local weather picture.
Further informing the weather picture, TruWeather adds vital details to its model through a high fidelity microscale technique. Honed and driven by the newly compiled weather data which would otherwise be impossible to sufficiently observe through traditional methods, this modeling proves invaluable in the complex microclimates such as urban air mobility (UAM) corridors.
Objective Estimates
Most weather-based decisions today are performed without formal treatment of uncertainty, given the considerable difficulty of estimating it and then determining how to make use of the additional information. Yet incorporating uncertainty into operational decision-making is a crucial aspect of planning and executing low-level flight operations, especially for AAM.
TruWeather’s microscale model will aid in operational decision-making by helping companies understand and quantify the level of uncertainty in weather data and then simplifying the best use of it for decision-making.
By way of analogy, take the example of crossing a busy road outside a designated pedestrian crossing to save time getting to your destination. Our mind goes through the process of estimating the risk (getting hit by a car, causing an accident, getting a ticket, etc.) followed by estimating our risk tolerance (what level of risk we are willing to take on).
TruWeather has a product line that helps to ease the decision-making process and reduces risk. ‘Decision Tools’, like MissionCAST and RouteCAST enable pilots to enter custom thresholds, pull the best predictive weather data and provide colour-coded risk indicators for time and location.
TruWeather also offers various options within its Vertical 360 Workbook (V360) to allow businesses the greatest possible use of available comprehensive micro-weather data and analytics because the huge variety in use cases of weather data and operator decision processes means that one size does not fit all.
Optimizing Decision Making for Weather
TruWeather’s V360 is the first of its kind application to offer a centralised platform for weather- related information tailored to the needs of eVTOL operations. Specifically designed to optimise operations in low and mid airspace, which is particularly relevant for eVTOL operations, V360 provides comprehensive, customised weather awareness for eVTOL dispatch and command centres and operators.
One of its key features is the ability to translate micro weather data into simple “Go/No-Go” decision insights. This means it can take detailed, granular weather data and convert it into straightforward operational decisions, simplifying the decision-making process for operators. V360 is web-based but also available as individual APIs, providing flexibility and integration options for different operational needs.
Recommended decisions may be fully automated for machine-to-machine operations or displayed and explored manually to support human-in-the- loop decision making.
In short, the V360 provides a unique, comprehensive and powerful tool for AAM operators, enabling them to make informed operational decisions based on detailed weather data. TruWeather provides next-gen weather products and services for next-gen aviation.
