When will different eVTOLs gain commercial certification? Latest AAM Chart offers intriguing glimpse

SMG Con­sult­ing pub­lished last month its lat­est up-to-date AAM Real­i­ty Index (ARI) overview of the eVTOL Indus­try. Found­ed by Ser­gio Cecut­ta in Decem­ber 2020, these reg­u­lar updates mir­ror the rapid growth of the Advanced Air Mobil­i­ty Indus­try.

For exam­ple, the ini­tial chart of 14 OEMs (Orig­i­nal Equip­ment Man­u­fac­tur­ers) now stands at 27, an addi­tion of 13 com­pa­nies in just 20 months. This num­ber con­tin­ues to grow at a fast rate.

SMG’s Con­sult­ing ‘AAM Real­i­ty Index’ wel­comes new addi­tion – Ver­ti­ports: Inter­view with Founder Ser­gio Cecut­ta

Per­haps, the most impor­tant ques­tion: “When will the dif­fer­ent eVTOL com­pa­nies gain their full com­mer­cial cer­ti­fi­ca­tion?” is very much on the public’s mind and the lat­est AAM Index offers an intrigu­ing glimpse.

Below is the most recent data.

Two imme­di­ate sur­pris­es are Elroy Air and Pip­istrel where the “high­ly like­ly” green but­ton states next year. Joby Avi­a­tion and Volo­copter along­side EHang should be ready to par­tic­i­pate in the Paris Olympic Games, 2024 with a high­ly like­ly green but­ton, where­as Beta Tech­nolo­gies may also be avail­able if required, with a yel­low (like­ly). The chart sug­gests 2025 and 2026 are the two major break­through years with a poten­tial 13 addi­tion­al com­pa­nies.

The next ques­tion is with close to 20 dif­fer­ent eVTOLs ready to fly com­mer­cial­ly by the end of 2026, will the nec­es­sary infra­struc­ture tech­nolo­gies and flight routes be in place to accom­mo­date them all?

At present, the answer must be NO. There is so much catch­ing up to do on the oth­er side of the fence. The sce­nario where fly­ing taxi com­pa­nies need­ing to attract much need­ed rev­enues to make them finan­cial­ly viable, could be scup­pered because the infra­struc­ture is not in place. Cou­ple that with a sup­ply chain that may not be able to han­dle the sud­den demand for the parts required to con­struct the var­i­ous craft… the future sit­u­a­tion is all a bit con­cern­ing.

In Cecutta’s recent AAM addi­tion, the AIR INDEX, fol­low­ing the devel­op­ment of the ver­ti­port indus­try, there are just 9 com­pa­nies; and while 2024 states all should have struc­tures ready to go, it is the vol­ume need­ed lead­ing up to the end of 2026 that is impor­tant.

At least, dur­ing the Paris Olympic Games, only three are required to be built as there’s a num­ber of heli­ports in the city that can be con­vert­ed for the months of July and August. Yet, in the big­ger pic­ture, how will the U.S fair when by 2026, a large net­work of ver­ti­ports will be required across major areas of the coun­try.

The imbal­ance is there for all to see and while four years is a long time in the rapid­ly devel­op­ing eVTOL Indus­try, a wing and a prayer also could be nec­es­sary.

Mean­while, Cecut­ta is a reg­u­lar speak­er on the eVTOL-relat­ed Con­fer­ence and online Webi­nar cir­cuit. He is involved in today’s ‘Avi­a­tion Week Net­work Com­pli­men­ta­ry Webi­nar’. Details are below:

https://aviationweek.com/upcomingwebinars

For more infor­ma­tion

https://aamrealityindex.com